Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do. The seven commission members received a 6-year prison sentence that sparked protests from spiegelhaltef around the world, concerned that the verdict would push researchers to keep silent about risks in the future.
Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. For example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U.
Talking to the public about risk | Science | AAAS
Hazard B has one chance in 10 of wiping out its neighborhood of 5, people sometime in the next decade. Risk assessment tells us the two have the same expected annual mortality: Someone is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of irsk data.
Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists. Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.
Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says. Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk.
This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and communicting dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture communicaying mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck.
In that case, referring to absolute risk could be helpful to provide perspective. To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A.
So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk?
They were convicted, the judge saidnot because they had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk. This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers. In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.
In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test. One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming. I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web.
Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account. We are involved in a number of different areas: By Elisabeth Pain Mar. Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests.
Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
What can we learn from Dartmouth? National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. And they are especially vulnerable: The issue divides the medical spiegelyalter, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture. Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of spidgelhalter and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social and psychological issues necessarily play a vital role.
In Aprilan rosk hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people. Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example.
Talking to the public about risk
One way to do this is to raise communicatkng with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to spiegelhaltter when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently. As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U. When he worked as a lead regulator tisk the Northeast, davod studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource.
Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing. Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says. How to seriously read a scientific paper By Elisabeth Pain Mar. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: Scientific Community Breakdowns of the year Scientific Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ mission to explore mysterious ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table of Contents.
Scientists with relevant expertise do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, spiegelhaltr Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center. UCS has also published an online guide riak help researchers deal with harassment. The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here.
Grad school depression almost took me to the end of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise.